by William Li | Dec 1, 2018 | Real Estate
温哥华独立屋市场已经平淡了一段时间，也算是对BC省NDP上台以来一系列控制房价政策的市场反应吧。这里我着重谈谈温西新屋市场的情况，咱们拿实际数据来说事。 先来定义一下我的数据范围：
- 2015年以后建成
- 地宽33尺以上，面积3600平方尺以上
- 销售日期：2017年5月25日– 2018年5月24日
- 标准地定义：地宽33尺，深度110-136尺，面积3600- 4600平方尺
- 大地定义：地宽42尺以上，面积5000平方尺以上
- 研究区域: 温西的 University Hill, Point Grey, Dunbar, Kitslano, Arbutus, MacKenzie Heights, Kerrisdale, Quilchena, Southlands, South West Marine, South Granville (基本上在Granville St以西）
在以上定义范围内，MLS系统共有58个销售记录，来看看是如何分布的：
| Total | 标准地
3600-5000尺 | 大地
5000-9000尺 | 超大地
9000尺以上 |
| Dunbar | 16 | 8 | 8 | |
| Point Grey | 10 | 6 | 4 | |
| Kerrisdale | 10 | 5 | 5 | |
| SW Marine | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Kitsilano | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| Arbutus | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| M. Heights | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| S. Granville | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quilchena | 1 | | 1 | |
| Southlands | 1 | | 1 | |
| University Hill | 1 | | 1 | |
不难看出Dunbar, Point Grey, Kerrisdale 三个区占据了新屋发展的前三名，Kitslano, Arbutus 和 MacKenzie Heights 这三个区其次，South West Marine 则主要是大地或超大地新屋发展的区域。
关于上市销售时间- Days On Market (DOM)
MLS显示的DOM只是当前Listing#的上市时间，而大部分新屋都有过2次以上的上市记录，为客观显示上市时间，就得累加同一房屋所有上市记录的DOM。总之，这一年新屋不好卖，平均上市销售时间为179天。
来看看卖得久的独立屋：
| 地址 | 销售天数
Days | 售价 | 区域 | 备注 |
| 34** W 16 Ave | 456 | $3,030,000 | Kitsilano | 标准地；
主路 |
| 36** W 11 Ave | 399 | $3,300,000 | Kitsilano | 标准地 |
| 29** W 41 Ave | 365 | $3,430,000 | Kerrisdale | 标准地；
主路 |
| 23** W 13 Ave | 726 | $4,580,000 | Kitsilano | 大地 |
| 29** W 44 Ave | 401 | $6,950,000 | Kerrisdale | 大地 |
| 38** W 38 Ave | 346 | $7,880,000 | Dunbar | 大地 |
| 67** Arbutus St | 411 | $8,580,000 | SW Marine | 超大地 |
位于主路和大地的房子在市场上卖得比较慢。主路的房子向来都不是很受欢迎，同比价格要低不少才能受到市场接纳；而大地的房子由于受到银行贷款难度增加、国际资金流动困难等因素受到较为明显的影响。其中上市726天的23** W 13 Ave是个特例，该房子在刚获得建筑许可时就挂牌销售了，所以726天包含了整个房子建造发展的时间。
不妨再来看看卖得顺利的独立屋：
| 地址 | 销售天数
Days | 售价 | 区域 | 备注 |
| 44** W 14 Ave | 5 | $4,150,000 | Point Grey | 标准地 |
| 40** W 15 Ave | 22 | $4,400,000 | Point Grey | 标准地 |
| 29** W 31 Ave | 30 | $6,750,000 | MacKenzie
heights | 大地 |
| 46** W 3 Ave | 40 | $7,800,000 | Point Grey | 大地 |
| 33** W 29 Ave | 41 | $3,795,000 | Dunbar | 标准地 |
| 29** W 24 Ave | 42 | $3,770,000 | Arbutus | 标准地 |
| 27** W 38 Ave | 45 | $5,350,000 | Kerrisdale | 大地 |
Point Grey的标准地看来是硬通货，如果走路上Lord Byng Secondary的话，很多买家还是很给面子的。大地房子也相当有需求，只是在当前市场条件下，买家在房屋设计、质量细节，当然还有价格方面，是非常挑剔的。
关于成交价格 (Sold Price)
这58套房屋的平均成交价格是$5,042,000, 其中标准地独立屋(28栋)平均售价$3,774,500, 大地独立屋(30栋)平均售价$6,181,500。最低售价是位于South Granville 的11** W 63 Ave, 成交价280万，主要是location的缘故吧，Builder在买这块地的时候也便宜不少。售价最高的位于 SW Marine 的6*** Beachwood St, 售价$10,080,000, 在这栋别墅建造过程中我“拜访”过若干次，我也跟其中很多的Contractor合作过。该Builder在2013年以300多万购得此地，不得不说这一项目做得漂亮！
再细看一下33尺宽标准地的情况：
| 区域 | 销售数量 | 平均售价 | 备注 |
| Dunbar | 8 | $3,761,000 | 1 主路房 |
| Point Grey | 6 | $4,138,000 | |
| Kerrisdale | 5 | $3,550,000 | 1主路房 |
| Kitsilano | 4 | $3,448,000 | 1主路房 |
| Arbutus | 2 | $3,778,000 | |
| M. Heights | 1 | $3,980,000 | |
| S. Granville | 1 | $2,800,000 | |
| SW Marine | 1 | $3,120,000 | |
（Note: 主路房定义 路面有黄色分界线，BUS畅通无阻）
虽然这篇文章的数据是新屋，但也能相对映射其他不同年龄独立屋的市场状况，新屋卖得不错的区域，旧屋也差不到哪里去，在新屋市场淡的情况下，旧屋反而更抢手。 还有其他很有意思的现象，比如中厨设计。58栋已售房屋中，30栋大地独立屋都设计有第二个厨房，让油烟尽情飞吧，28栋标准地独立屋有9栋没有第二厨房，卖得也不错。希望以后有机会总结一下关于独立屋的设计细节方面，例如风格，材料使用等等。
by William Li | Nov 14, 2018 | Real Estate
受到加拿大以高档、豪华为特色的开发商 Westbank 的邀请，因为时间许可，地点方便，平时对楼花不太感冒的我还是决定晚饭后一探究竟。周二（11月13日）风雨交加之夜，当我快到 parking 时，分明 Mall 已打烊，汽车却一部一部排成长龙，我还以为是黑色星期五抢购呢。
走进商场，看到乌泱泱一片经纪的同行们，当然不乏熟悉的面孔。虽然我参加的楼花发售仪式不算多，但像这样的阵仗实不多见。现场经纪数量千余人，商场中央梯台一字排开，看样子有好戏看了！
注：该项目图片3D渲染图片来自 https://www.wallpaper.com/architecture/Oakridge-henriquez-partners-vancouver
不多久 Westbank Corp. 的创始人 Mr. Ian Gillespie 开始阐述他关于Oakridge Center 重新发展的想法与理念。”to use architecture to support the culture, enrich people’s life…” 听起来 Gillespie 先生要用尽全身功力，创作出”博士后“级别的作品： 号称温哥华的第二个市中心，全世界最知名的室内外设计师，最环保绿色，most sustainable building… 在他的演讲过程中穿插着现代社区生活展示、芭蕾舞以及模特走秀等等。
Ian 邀请了 Goh Ballet Academy Director Ms. Chan-Hon Goh （吴振红）作为多元文化的代表进行了演讲。她生于北京，父母曾是中国芭蕾舞团的台柱子，70年代中期来到加拿大。Ian 特别想引导她讲述当年来加拿大的背景，Ms. Goh 似乎有意回避这个话题。这让我想到了一部电影 Mao’s Last Dancer , 算是当晚的插曲之一吧！
最后分享一下个人看法，想到哪就说到哪。
- 目标市场。据说该楼盘单价$2,600/平方尺起，想要住的舒服些，随随便便一套200万加元起。我认为的潜在买家为：少量的第一次购房者为，年青精英等；或家有闲钱者，实在也没有其他更好的投资项目的，这里引用一个新名词 satellite families (太空家庭）， 似乎政府把 foreign owner 与 太空家庭在投机税方面视为一类，但我还是有很多疑惑，很多会计师也有不同的看法，至少我很怀疑投机税对于太空家庭的操作性；第三类的潜在买家是海外投资者，虽然各级政府出台很多政策打压海外投资者，但 who cares，不能让贫穷限制了我们的想象力。
- Ian 先生声称的”support culture”，可能达到的不是多元文化吧，大多本地家庭是望而却步的。Westbank 就曾因为 Target 中国有钱买家受到批评 （多伦多星报新闻）。地产经纪是有钱就赚的行业，看看最近朋友圈风靡的帖子吧，VIP， VVIP，VVVIP的经纪们“保证拿盘”… 也是醉了。健康的房产投资是要有一定周期的，至少持有5年以上，选择“对”的地产会有不错的回报的，利用房地产赚快钱的时代已经过去了。当然我并非否定 Oakridge Center 的投资价值，毕竟我们BC省200多万居民的退休基金都参与进来投资了，不能陪钱呀！但是可以看看开车10分钟之内的距离，包括温西及部分温东的区域，在当前市场条件下，我以为反而更具有投资价值。
- 有幸读了关键人的 BIO ， 想到了几个关键词：UBC， MBA，慈善家 Robert Lee, China。一个的人成功有偶然的因素，也有必然的因素，我们在教育自己孩子的时候，往往想到的是医生、工程师、IT专家，而不太考虑 Politics，Humanity 的方向，其实最后我们都在为他人工作。当然当医生、律师还是很好的，我们华人父母都会很骄傲的，一个好的职业能够带来财富，但是并不能保证健康与快乐！
by William Li | Aug 16, 2013 | Design & Build, Real Estate
From the website SEO point of view, I should update my blog regularly, but it has been more than 2 months since my last input. Yes, it’s very busy for the home inspection business, and I read a news today at Vancouver Sun and said ‘Hot Vancouver real estate market boosts national housing number…’ wow, no wonder! I don’t think that is a good news for potential buyers, but what can we do as we live in VANCOUVER!
Apart from the home inspection, I have a managed a renovation project which included both exterior and interior painting, re-flooring, some re-roofing, windows replacement, kitchen cabinet renewal, furnace replacement, the electrical panel replacement and so many other things. I do gain some valuable experience from managing the project, especially for the high efficiency furnace and electrical panel replacement by licensed trades people. I spent two days with them by offering being a free helper, you know, it is really a good experience for a home inspector.
by William Li | May 15, 2013 | Real Estate
Further to my last post, especially the feasibility of achieving the positive cash flow in investing in rental properties, here are some communications regrading this topic between me and Jonathan Huang from CIBC Bank, and I would like to share it here with his consent.
“…Based on current real estate market situation in Vancouver, if someone wanted to buy a $1 million dollar home and rent it out, the owner would have to put a specific amount of a down payment towards the purchase in order to generate a positive cashflow from the rental income.
Scott McGillvray talked about investing in rental properties that are easily rented out. From the examples he used in the seminar, it seems that a target potential for tenants would be students. The appreciation of the property value would not be the main objective for such an investment, but a positive cash flow is. As long as the property’s rental income can cover all the costs including mortgage payment (principal and interest), property tax, strata fees, etc., then it could be considered for a potential purchase.
With the growing population of the students (both international and domestic), the Lower Mainland condo or apartment real estate market offers a tremendous opportunity for investors. For example, in the New Westminster SkyTrain Station area, a two bedroom apartment is available in the price range of $260K to $300K. Such a property can potentially generate a rental income of $1,400 to $1,600 monthly.
Let’s use an example of a $280,000 apartment with a $1,500/month rental income:
20% down payment: 280000 @ 20% = $56,000
Mortgage amount: 280000 @ 80% = $224,000
A current three-year fixed rate mortgage is 2.45% (CIBC special rate, subject to change)
The monthly mortgage payment: $877.82 (principal $422.80 and interest $455.02 based on 30 year amortization)
The property taxes: ~$1,500/12 = $125.00
Strata Fee: ~$230 = $230.00
The total monthly cost would be ($877.82 + $125.00 + $230.00) = $1232.82
The net cash flow of this investment: $1,500 – $1,232.82 = + $267.18
If $5073.60 ($422.80 x 12) in principal is paid towards the mortgage, which increases the equity of the property by the same amount each year assuming the property valued remains constant, then the annual positive cash flow would effectively yield a 5.72% ($267.18×12/$56,000) return on the $56,000 down payment. This is a much better than a 5 year GIC rate of a mere 2.00%.
The above analysis is for illustrative purposes only. The ultimate decision on whether or not a person should invest in a rental property should be based on the client’s entire financial picture, including the investment objective, and any long term investments should be considered in conjunction with tax planning, retirement planning, estate planning, etc.
… …”
“Thanks for your input, Jonathan.
From the example you gave, it is a $300,000 condo. If one wanted to invest in a million dollar house, then he will have to rely on the capital gain in the long run, and he won’t get positive cash flow.
… …”
“It is not going to achieve a positive cash flow with a million dollar property which has a 80% mortgage. The time for a quick capital gain is gone unless there would be a chaos in the rest of the world and all the riches wanted come to Canada.
People can still buy very old houses and rebuild a new one, but that is a totally different ball game.
… …”
by William Li | May 10, 2013 | Real Estate
Thanks for the invitation from Jonathan Huang, I attended a seminar jointly held by CIBC and Scott McGillivray the other day. I would like to share what I learned briefly in that night.
There are four fundamental factors when investing in a property:
I understand the importance of positive cash flow, but in Vancouver real estate market, how much down payment you have in order to achieve that? And, is it still worthwhile to do so?
It is very hard to find “perfect” trades person in the renovation industry, what you can do is to try to minimize the risk. Here are three pieces of paperwork when dealing with a contractor.
- Estimate
- Scope of work
- Change work order
Avoid “HP” (hope & pray) strategy in you house project, good luck!
